The Fed declares that the reduction in the world’s economic impact

The Fed declares that the reduction in the world’s economic impact

The Fed declares that the reduction in the world’s economic impact

  Xinhua News Agency, Washington, November 3, hot spot Q & A: The Fed announced that the reduction of bonds World Economic Influence Geometry Xinhua News Agency reporter Hao Pen is the 3rd announcement will start to reduce asset purchase from this month later. This shows that the Fed will begin to gradually exit quantitative easing policies since the new championship outbreak.

As the world’s most important central bank, the steering potential of the Fed will not have important impact on international capital flow and financial market assets, and its outerflow effect cannot be ignored.

  Why is the US store to reduce the scale of the debt to respond to the new crown epidemic on the US economy and financial market, the Fed minimizes the federal fund interest rate target interval to zero to% ultra low level, and start quantitative loose policies, injecting a lot fluidity.

Since the beginning of last year, the Fed has been purchased at $ 80 billion in US Treasury bonds and $ 40 billion institutional mortgage to support securities, and the long-term interest rate and stimulate economic recovery. The Fed now decides that the size of the monthly purchase is started. On the one hand, the US economy has met the prerequisite for the US Fed, which has achieved "further substantive progress" in achieving full employment and 2% inflation.

On the other hand, the side effects of quantitative loose policies are increasingly revealed that the signs of expansion of asset prices have emerged in the US real estate and securities market may affect financial market stability.

At the same time, in the face of the pressure and questioning of American inflation, the Fed needs to respond to concern and consider ending the quantitative easing policy as soon as possible. Based on the reduction bond plan announced on the 3rd of the Fed, the Fed will start to cut assets by $ 15 billion monthbook, including $ 10 billion in US Treasury, and $ 5 billion agency mortgage support securities.

But the Fed also said that if the US economic prospects change, the Fed is also ready to adjust the monthly asset purchase speed, that is, the Fed also adjusts the process of reducing debt.

  Strictly speaking, the US Fed reduced debt size does not represent tightening monetary policies.

US Enterprise Research Institute economist Dersmond Rahman told Xinhua News Agency, even if it started to reduce the debt, the Fed will still purchase a large number of bonds every month, and will end the debt in the middle of next year, the US affairs balance sheet is still In expansion. At the same time, the Fed still maintains the federal fund interest rate in close zero level, which means that the Fed’s monetary policy stand is only from "very, very loose" to "very loose". When the Fed starts to start the rate hike, after the Fed will start reduce the debt, the market will turn interest rate hike to the next policy concern in the Fed’s next step.

The Fed Chairman Powell emphasized at the press conference on the 3rd that the Federal Reserve started to reduce the debt and did not mean any changes in interest rate policies. The Fed made a more stringent prerequisite for starting interest rates. The current US economic distance achieves full employment goals. Far, it is still not a hike.

  Rahman pointed out that the Fed was unlikely to raise hikes before June next year.

Diana Swank, Chief Economist Zhi, the Certified Public Accountant, said that Powell admitted that the US economy may fully employment next year, which means that the Fed may start interest rate hike in the second half of next year.

  The Federal Reserve officials have not reached unconstitution. The US economy predicts announced in September show that 9 US Federal stock officials predicted that at least 1 interest rate hike before 2022, and 9 US Federation officials support the remaining ultra-low interest rate levels until 2023. In view of the fact that the US inflation is high, Goldman Sachs Group economists have announced their prediction of the first rate hike for the Federal Reserve after the Fed, July 2022, and the Fed will expect the Fed to raise interest rates again in November 2022. I will raise interest rates twice a year.

  Jay Brysen, chief economist of Fushang Bank Securities, believes that the current financial market is too radical for the Federal Reserve rate interest rate. He expects the US economy to return to the full employment level before the epidemic, the Fed will wait until the Fed. The hike period will be opened in 2023. After the official announcement of the World Economic Influence, the US government bond yield and the US dollar exchange rate change, the three major stock indexes of the New York stock market rose slightly, and the global financial market performance is relatively stable.

  The International Financial Association believes that the financial market has digested the US Fed, and the emerging market responds to the global impact capacity, the new round of special withdrawal rights for the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has also been a new round of special withdrawal rights. Developing countries have added foreign exchange reserves, so the financial market is unlikely to appear "Reduced Cost Paste". Tobias Adrian, director of the IMF Currency and Capital Market, pointed out that the "reduction value net panic" in 2013 has caused sharp rise in a short period of time, and the credit spreads are expanded. It is very disadvantageous to emerging markets. Improve policy communication, determining the right reduction bond pace is extremely important. Adrian said that in order to stabilize inflation expectations, some emerging economies have already launched interest rates, which should pay more attention to promoting economic recovery, inhibiting inflation and financial stability in the future.

He warned that the Fed suddenly turned to the interest rate hikes to lead to rapid changes in the global financing environment. Some emerging markets may face the risk of capital flow reversal. Those countries with debt sustainability will face greater pressure and more debt restructuring in the future .

  Adrian believes that the Fed’s reduction debt will not have significant impact on China’s cross-border capital flow, because China has obvious advantages in attracting international capital inflows, international investors are investing in China. Purchase stocks and bonds. (Editor: Dai Xiaoyu, Jiang Jie).